Germany vs Italy: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 23 March

Germany

D W W W D

1st place in Group C

3-3

23/03/2025 15:45

Italy

L W W D W

2nd place in Group B

UEFA Nations League

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Germany vs Italy on 23 March 2025 (kick-off: 15:45) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Germany vs Italy preview before placing your bet.

Germany are currently 1st with 14 points after 6 matches.
Italy sit 2nd with 13 points from 6 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Germany to win with probability 53%.
Head-to-head history favors Germany, who have won 2 of the last 6 meetings. Italy have no wins, while 4 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

15:45

2025-03-23

Germany vs Italy - Prediction & Odds

Germany

Italy

2025-03-23 15:45

STANDINGS UP TO 23/03/2025

Group B	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 France	13	6	4	1	1	12	6	6
02 Italy	13	6	4	1	1	13	8	5
03 Belgium	4	6	1	1	4	6	9	-3
04 Israel	4	6	1	1	4	5	13	-8

Group C	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Germany	14	6	4	2	0	18	4	14
02 Netherlands	9	6	2	3	1	13	7	6
03 Hungary	6	6	1	3	2	4	11	-7
04 Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	6	0	2	4	4	17	-13

Head To Head

14/06/2022 14:45

Germany

5 - 2

Italy

UEFA NL

04/06/2022 14:45

Italy

1 - 1

Germany

UEFA NL

15/11/2016 15:45

Italy

0 - 0

Germany

INT FRL

02/07/2016 15:00

Germany

1 - 1

Italy

EURO Cup

29/03/2016 14:45

Germany

4 - 1

Italy

INT FRL

15/11/2013 15:45

Italy

1 - 1

Germany

INT CF

Germany

33%

Draw

67%

Italy

Germany Last 6 matches

19/11/2024 15:45

Hungary 1 - 1 Germany UEFA NL

16/11/2024 15:45

Germany 7 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina UEFA NL

14/10/2024 14:45

Germany 1 - 0 Netherlands UEFA NL

11/10/2024 14:45

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 - 2 Germany UEFA NL

10/09/2024 14:45

Netherlands 2 - 2 Germany UEFA NL

07/09/2024 14:45

Germany 5 - 0 Hungary UEFA NL

Win

67%

Draw

33%

Lost

Last 6 matches Italy

17/11/2024 15:45

Italy 1 - 3 France UEFA NL

14/11/2024 15:45

Belgium 0 - 1 Italy UEFA NL

14/10/2024 14:45

Italy 4 - 1 Israel UEFA NL

10/10/2024 14:45

Italy 2 - 2 Belgium UEFA NL

09/09/2024 14:45

Israel 1 - 2 Italy UEFA NL

06/09/2024 14:45

France 1 - 3 Italy UEFA NL

Win

67%

Draw

17%

Lost

17%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues UEFA Nations League

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Germany

Italy

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

1.06

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.48

Scored

Avg. per game

0.94

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.42

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 86 matches

YesNo

52 (60%)34 (40%)

In last 86 matches

NoYes

51 (60%)34 (40%)

Germany

Recent matches

Italy

Under /Over

(91%)41 4(9%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(80%)36 9(20%)

Under /Over

(44%)20 25(56%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(47%)21 24(53%)

Under /Over

(62%)28 17(38%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(42%)19 26(58%)

/Yes

(60%)27 18(40%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(53%)24 21(47%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Germany

Italy

Shots

Germany

Total shots

16.85 avg / game

Blocked

246 total

Avg. 4.24

Italy

Total shots

15.15 avg / game

Blocked

266 total

Avg. 4.59

Germany Pass Italy

Total passes

38275

Avg. 649 / game

Accurate

89%

Ball possession

64%

Total passes

33285

Avg. 546 / game

Accurate

86%

Ball possession

56%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Germany

Played games

Italy

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.33

Clean sheets

0.47

5.29

455

Corners

425

5.00

11.53

992

Throw-ins

1131

13.31

1.86

160

Offsides

150

1.76

1.72

148

GK saves

161

1.89

Germany

DISCIPLINARY

Italy

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.28

110

122

1.44

0.01

0.05

9.57

823

Fouls

830

9.76

9.73

837

Tackles

825

9.71

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Germany vs Italy Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Germany vs Italy on 23 March 2025 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this UEFA Nations League fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Germany vs Italy Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Germany's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Italy's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

UEFA Nations League Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live UEFA Nations League standings and the UEFA Nations League form table to understand exactly where Germany and Italy sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our UEFA Nations League predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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