Derby County vs Leeds United: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 11 January

Prediction Match Centre

Derby County

No standing data

1-3

Leeds United
Win Probability 57%

11/01/2026 05:00

Leeds United

No standing data

England FA Cup

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Derby County vs Leeds United on 11 January 2026 (kick-off: 05:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Derby County vs Leeds United preview before placing your bet.

Derby County will face Leeds United in England FA Cup on January 11, 2026 at 05:00.
Current model prediction leans green with a projected score of 1 - 1 and average coefficient 1.57.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

05:00

2026-01-11

Derby County vs Leeds United - Prediction & Odds

Derby County

Leeds United

2026-01-11 05:00

STANDINGS UP TO 11/01/2026

The standings compare the rankings (Rank-XH) of Derby County and Leeds United in the England FA Cup football standings for the 2025-2026 season, updated before kickoff and immediately after the match ends.

Head To Head

29/12/2024 10:45

Derby County

0 - 1

Leeds United

ENG LCH

07/12/2024 05:30

Leeds United

2 - 0

Derby County

ENG LCH

19/07/2020 06:00

Derby County

1 - 3

Leeds United

ENG LCH

21/09/2019 04:30

Leeds United

1 - 1

Derby County

ENG LCH

15/05/2019 11:45

Leeds United

2 - 4

Derby County

ENG LCH

11/05/2019 09:15

Derby County

0 - 1

Leeds United

ENG LCH

Derby County

17%

Draw

17%

Leeds United

67%

Derby County Last 6 matches

04/01/2026 08:00

Derby County 1 - 2 Wrexham

ENG LCH

01/01/2026 08:00

Derby County 1 - 0 Middlesbrough

ENG LCH

29/12/2025 12:45

Leicester City 2 - 1 Derby County

ENG LCH

26/12/2025 05:30

Birmingham City 1 - 1 Derby County

ENG LCH

20/12/2025 08:00

Derby County 1 - 1 Portsmouth

ENG LCH

15/12/2025 13:00

Sheffield Wednesday 0 - 3 Derby County

ENG LCH

Win

33%

Draw

33%

Lost

33%

Last 6 matches Leeds United

07/01/2026 13:15

Newcastle United 4 - 3 Leeds United

ENG PR

04/01/2026 05:30

Leeds United 1 - 1 Manchester United

ENG PR

01/01/2026 10:30

Liverpool 0 - 0 Leeds United

ENG PR

28/12/2025 07:00

Sunderland A.F.C 1 - 1 Leeds United

ENG PR

20/12/2025 13:00

Leeds United 4 - 1 Crystal Palace

ENG PR

14/12/2025 09:30

Brentford 1 - 1 Leeds United

ENG PR

Win

17%

Draw

67%

Lost

17%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues England FA Cup

Played games

Derby County

Leeds United

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

1.43

Conceded

Avg. per game

1.33

Scored

Avg. per game

1.34

Conceded

Avg. per game

1.41

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

6 (100%)0 (0%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 49 matches

YesNo

45 (92%)4 (8%)

In last 49 matches

NoYes

31 (70%)13 (30%)

Derby County

Recent matches

Leeds United

Under /Over

(76%)34 11(24%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(75%)33 11(25%)

Under /Over

(27%)12 33(73%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(34%)15 29(66%)

Under /Over

(49%)22 23(51%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(52%)23 21(48%)

/Yes

(64%)29 16(36%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(59%)26 18(41%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Derby County

Leeds United

Shots

Derby County

Total shots

10.71 avg / game

Blocked

153 total

Avg. 3.26

Leeds United

Total shots

13.39 avg / game

Blocked

171 total

Avg. 3.89

Derby County Pass Leeds United

Total passes

16580

Avg. 338 / game

Accurate

73%

Ball possession

44%

Total passes

17751

Avg. 403 / game

Accurate

79%

Ball possession

47%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Derby County

Played games

Leeds United

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.24

Clean sheets

0.20

4.51

221

Corners

209

4.75

21.65

1061

Throw-ins

816

18.55

1.47

Offsides

1.59

3.27

160

GK saves

116

2.64

Derby County

DISCIPLINARY

Leeds United

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

2.45

120

1.70

0.06

0.02

12.33

604

Fouls

467

10.61

9.35

458

Tackles

463

10.52

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Derby County vs Leeds United on 11 January 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this England FA Cup fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Derby County vs Leeds United Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Derby County's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Leeds United's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

England FA Cup Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live England FA Cup standings and the England FA Cup form table to understand exactly where Derby County and Leeds United sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our England FA Cup predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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