Derby County vs Leeds United: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 11 January

Betiball's prediction for Derby County vs Leeds United on 11 January 2026 (kick-off: 05:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Derby County vs Leeds United preview before placing your bet.

Prediction Match Centre

Derby County vs Leeds United: Starting Lineups Time : 11/01/2026 05:00

Derby County
1 - 3
Finished
Leeds United
73' event Patrick Agyemang / Lars-Jorgen Salvesen
73' event Owen Eames / Bobby Clark
63' event Rhian Brewster / Corey Josiah Paul Blackett-Taylor
63' event David Ozoh / Lewis Travis
46' event Adams Ebrima / Oscar Luigi Fraulo
35' event Ben Brereton
18' event Oscar Luigi Fraulo
event 90+3' James Justin
event 90+2' Jack Harrison
event 89' Brenden Aaronson / Noah Okafor
event 89' Anton Stach / Joel Piroe
event 86' Sam Byram / Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
event 73' Sean Longstaff / Ilia Gruev
event 59' Ao Tanaka
event 55' Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
event 46' James Justin / Sebastiaan Bornauw
event 33' Joel Piroe
73' event Patrick Agyemang / Lars-Jorgen Salvesen
event 90+3' James Justin
73' event Owen Eames / Bobby Clark
event 90+2' Jack Harrison
63' event Rhian Brewster / Corey Josiah Paul Blackett-Taylor
event 89' Brenden Aaronson / Noah Okafor
63' event David Ozoh / Lewis Travis
event 89' Anton Stach / Joel Piroe
46' event Adams Ebrima / Oscar Luigi Fraulo
event 86' Sam Byram / Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
35' event Ben Brereton
event 73' Sean Longstaff / Ilia Gruev
18' event Oscar Luigi Fraulo
event 59' Ao Tanaka
event 55' Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
event 46' James Justin / Sebastiaan Bornauw
event 33' Joel Piroe
Derby County Derby County
Substitutions
#32 Adams Ebrima
#18 David Ozoh
#10 Rhian Brewster
#37 Owen Eames
#7 Patrick Agyemang
#12 Richard ODonnell
#35 Curtis Nelson
#20 Callum Elder
#14 Andreas Weimann
Derby County Derby County Leeds United Leeds United
7Shots22
2Shots on Goal11
16Fouls8
5Corner Kick5
8Free kick15
0Offside3
1Yellow card1
43Aerial35
8Save1
17Successful Tackles11
5Interceptions8
17Long pass28
0Assist2
3Successful center3
4Shots off goal6
0Hit The Post1
19Head Success20
1Blocked5
11Tackle6
7Dribbles4
17Throw-in19
262Passes508
79Attacks104
27Dangerous attacks56
2Corner Kicks(HT)2
1BigChances5
0BigChancesMissed2
7ShotsInsideBox13
0ShotsOutsideBox9
50DuelsWon52
0.42ExpectedGoals2.58
0.21xGOpenPlay1.79
0.42xGNonPenalty1.79
0.98xGOT3.04
15Touches In Opposition Box38
11AccurateCrosses26
32GroundDuelsWon31
18AerialDuelsWon21
26Clearances13
Leeds United Leeds United
Substitutions
#24 James Justin
#8 Sean Longstaff
#25 Sam Byram
#18 Anton Stach
#11 Brenden Aaronson
#1 Lucas Estella Perri
#5 Pascal Struijk
#42 Sam Chambers
#9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Commentary
90+3' Goal! James Justin - Leeds United
90+2' Jack Harrison - Leeds United receive a yellow card
89' Leeds United — substitution: Brenden Aaronson / Noah Okafor
89' Leeds United — substitution: Anton Stach / Joel Piroe
86' Leeds United — substitution: Sam Byram / Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
73' Derby County — substitution: Patrick Agyemang / Lars-Jorgen Salvesen
73' Derby County — substitution: Owen Eames / Bobby Clark
73' Leeds United — substitution: Sean Longstaff / Ilia Gruev
63' Derby County — substitution: Rhian Brewster / Corey Josiah Paul Blackett-Taylor
63' Derby County — substitution: David Ozoh / Lewis Travis
59' Goal! Ao Tanaka - Leeds United
55' Goal! Degnand Wilfried Gnonto - Leeds United
46' Derby County — substitution: Adams Ebrima / Oscar Luigi Fraulo
46' Leeds United — substitution: James Justin / Sebastiaan Bornauw
35' Goal! Ben Brereton - Derby County
33' Penalty missed! Joel Piroe - Leeds United
18' Oscar Luigi Fraulo - Derby County receive a yellow card

How We Build the Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Derby County vs Leeds United on 11 January 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Derby County vs Leeds United Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Derby County's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Leeds United's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live standings and the form table to understand exactly where Derby County and Leeds United sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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