Carlisle United vs Derby County: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 23 September

Carlisle United

L L W L L

24th place in England League 1

0-2

23/09/2023 10:00

Derby County

W D D W W

2nd place in England League 1

England League 1

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Carlisle United vs Derby County on 23 September 2023 (kick-off: 10:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Carlisle United vs Derby County preview before placing your bet.

Carlisle United are currently 24th with 30 points after 46 matches.
Derby County sit 2nd with 92 points from 46 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Derby County to win with probability 44%.
Head-to-head history favors Derby County, who have won 1 of the last 2 meetings. Carlisle United have no wins, while one match ended in a draw.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

10:00

2023-09-23

Carlisle United vs Derby County - Prediction & Odds

Carlisle United

Derby County

2023-09-23 10:00

STANDINGS UP TO 23/09/2023

Overall Table	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Portsmouth	97	46	28	13	5	78	41	37
02 Derby County	92	46	28	8	10	78	37	41
03 Bolton Wanderers	87	46	25	12	9	86	51	35
04 Peterborough United	84	46	25	9	12	89	61	28
05 Oxford United	77	46	22	11	13	79	56	23
06 Barnsley	76	46	21	13	12	82	64	18
07 Lincoln City	74	46	20	14	12	65	40	25
08 Blackpool	73	46	21	10	15	65	48	17
09 Stevenage Borough	71	46	19	14	13	57	46	11
10 Wycombe Wanderers	65	46	17	14	15	60	55	5
11 Leyton Orient	65	46	18	11	17	53	55	-2
12 Wigan Athletic	62	46	20	10	16	63	56	7
13 Exeter City	61	46	17	10	19	46	61	-15
14 Northampton Town	60	46	17	9	20	57	66	-9
15 Bristol Rovers	57	46	16	9	21	52	68	-16
16 Charlton Athletic	53	46	11	20	15	64	65	-1
17 Reading	53	46	16	11	19	68	70	-2
18 Cambridge United	48	46	12	12	22	39	61	-22
19 Shrewsbury Town	48	46	13	9	24	35	67	-32
20 Burton Albion	46	46	12	10	24	39	67	-28
21 Cheltenham Town	44	46	12	8	26	41	65	-24
22 Fleetwood Town	43	46	10	13	23	49	72	-23
23 Port Vale	41	46	10	11	25	41	74	-33
24 Carlisle United	30	46	7	9	30	41	81	-40

Head To Head

23/08/2016 14:45

Derby County

1 - 1

Carlisle United

ENG LC

11/08/2014 14:45

Carlisle United

0 - 2

Derby County

ENG LC

Carlisle United

Draw

50%

Derby County

50%

Carlisle United Last 6 matches

16/09/2023 10:00

Lincoln City 1 - 1 Carlisle United ENG L1

09/09/2023 10:00

Stevenage Borough 2 - 2 Carlisle United ENG L1

05/09/2023 14:45

Accrington Stanley 1 - 0 Carlisle United ENG JPT

02/09/2023 10:00

Carlisle United 2 - 0 Shrewsbury Town ENG L1

26/08/2023 10:00

Port Vale 1 - 0 Carlisle United ENG L1

19/08/2023 10:00

Carlisle United 0 - 2 Exeter City ENG L1

Win

17%

Draw

33%

Lost

50%

Last 6 matches Derby County

19/09/2023 14:00

Derby County 2 - 0 Lincoln City ENG JPT

16/09/2023 10:00

Derby County 1 - 1 Portsmouth ENG L1

02/09/2023 10:00

Bolton Wanderers 2 - 1 Derby County ENG L1

26/08/2023 10:00

Peterborough United 2 - 4 Derby County ENG L1

19/08/2023 10:00

Derby County 1 - 0 Fleetwood Town ENG L1

15/08/2023 14:45

Derby County 1 - 2 Oxford United ENG L1

Win

50%

Draw

17%

Lost

33%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues England League 1

Played games

Goals

Scored

404

Avg. per game

1.35

Conceded

379

Avg. per game

1.26

Scored

409

Avg. per game

1.36

Conceded

348

Avg. per game

1.16

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

5 (83%)1 (17%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

6 (100%)0 (0%)

In last 300 matches

YesNo

205 (68%)95 (32%)

In last 300 matches

NoYes

234 (78%)66 (22%)

Carlisle United

Recent matches

Derby County

Under /Over

(84%)38 7(16%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(80%)36 9(20%)

Under /Over

(49%)22 23(51%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(31%)14 31(69%)

Under /Over

(42%)19 26(58%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(53%)24 21(47%)

/Yes

(58%)26 19(42%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(67%)30 15(33%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Carlisle United

Derby County

Shots

Carlisle United

Total shots

11.63 avg / game

Blocked

609 total

Avg. 3.38

Derby County

Total shots

11.44 avg / game

Blocked

829 total

Avg. 3.48

Carlisle United Pass Derby County

Total passes

76057

Avg. 344 / game

Accurate

65%

Ball possession

49%

Total passes

100671

Avg. 383 / game

Accurate

72%

Ball possession

49%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Carlisle United

300

Played games

Derby County

300

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.30

Clean sheets

0.32

5.07

1522

Corners

1522

5.07

17.91

5373

Throw-ins

6351

21.17

1.05

316

Offsides

553

1.84

1.99

596

GK saves

682

2.27

Carlisle United

DISCIPLINARY

Derby County

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.69

506

527

1.76

0.05

0.05

7.54

2263

Fouls

2984

9.95

11.45

3435

Tackles

3658

12.19

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Carlisle United vs Derby County Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Carlisle United vs Derby County on 23 September 2023 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this England League 1 fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Carlisle United vs Derby County Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Carlisle United's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Derby County's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

England League 1 Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live England League 1 standings and the England League 1 form table to understand exactly where Carlisle United and Derby County sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our England League 1 predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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