Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 11 May

Toluca

W W W L W

3rd place in Autumn

0-0

11/05/2024 22:10

Chivas Guadalajara

D W W W W

6th place in Autumn

Primera Division de Mexico

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara on 11 May 2024 (kick-off: 22:10) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara preview before placing your bet.

Toluca are currently 3rd with 32 points after 17 matches.
Chivas Guadalajara sit 6th with 31 points from 17 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Toluca to win with probability 47%.
Head-to-head history favors Chivas Guadalajara, who have won 2 of the last 6 meetings. Toluca have one win, while 3 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

22:10

2024-05-11

Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara - Prediction & Odds

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

2024-05-11 22:10

STANDINGS UP TO 11/05/2024

Autumn	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Club America	35	17	10	5	2	30	12	18
02 CDSyC Cruz Azul	33	17	10	3	4	23	14	9
03 Toluca	32	17	9	5	3	38	23	15
04 Monterrey	32	17	9	5	3	32	19	13
05 Tigres UANL	31	17	9	4	4	34	23	11
06 Chivas Guadalajara	31	17	9	4	4	24	17	7
07 Pachuca	29	17	9	2	6	34	27	7
08 Pumas U.N.A.M.	27	17	7	6	4	27	22	5
09 Necaxa	27	17	7	6	4	30	29	1
10 Queretaro FC	24	17	6	6	5	22	21	1
11 Club Leon	24	17	7	3	7	23	25	-2
12 FC Juarez	16	17	4	4	9	19	26	-7
13 Atletico San Luis	16	17	5	1	11	25	35	-10
14 Mazatlan FC	16	17	4	4	9	21	32	-11
15 Santos Laguna	15	17	4	3	10	15	28	-13
16 Club Tijuana	14	17	2	8	7	21	30	-9
17 Atlas	14	17	3	5	9	21	31	-10
18 Puebla	5	17	1	2	14	18	43	-25

Apertura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Club America	40	17	12	4	1	37	14	23
02 Monterrey	33	17	10	3	4	27	15	12
03 Tigres UANL	30	17	8	6	3	32	18	14
04 Pumas U.N.A.M.	28	17	8	4	5	27	18	9
05 Chivas Guadalajara	27	17	8	3	6	22	22	0
06 Puebla	25	17	7	4	6	24	25	-1
07 Atletico San Luis	23	17	7	2	8	31	26	5
08 Club Leon	23	17	6	5	6	23	22	1
09 Santos Laguna	23	17	7	2	8	31	34	-3
10 Mazatlan FC	22	17	6	4	7	25	27	-2
11 Pachuca	22	17	5	7	5	16	27	-11
12 Toluca	21	17	5	6	6	23	19	4
13 Club Tijuana	20	17	6	2	9	23	26	-3
14 Queretaro FC	19	17	5	4	8	18	29	-11
15 FC Juarez	18	17	5	3	9	24	34	-10
16 CDSyC Cruz Azul	17	17	5	2	10	21	29	-8
17 Atlas	17	17	4	5	8	14	24	-10
18 Necaxa	15	17	3	6	8	18	27	-9

Head To Head

08/05/2024 21:05

Chivas Guadalajara

1 - 0

Toluca

MEX D1

30/01/2024 23:10

Chivas Guadalajara

3 - 2

Toluca

MEX D1

01/10/2023 19:20

Toluca

1 - 1

Chivas Guadalajara

MEX D1

25/03/2023 20:30

Chivas Guadalajara

2 - 2

Toluca

INT CF

21/01/2023 23:10

Chivas Guadalajara

1 - 2

Toluca

MEX D1

04/09/2022 18:30

Toluca

0 - 0

Chivas Guadalajara

MEX D1

Toluca

17%

Draw

50%

Chivas Guadalajara

33%

Toluca Last 6 matches

08/05/2024 21:05

Chivas Guadalajara 1 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

27/04/2024 21:00

Toluca 0 - 1 CDSyC Cruz Azul MEX D1

19/04/2024 23:00

Atletico San Luis 1 - 5 Toluca MEX D1

13/04/2024 21:05

Club America 5 - 1 Toluca MEX D1

07/04/2024 14:00

Toluca 4 - 1 Atlas MEX D1

30/03/2024 21:00

Pachuca 2 - 3 Toluca MEX D1

Win

50%

Draw

Lost

50%

Last 6 matches Chivas Guadalajara

08/05/2024 21:05

Chivas Guadalajara 1 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

27/04/2024 23:10

Atlas 0 - 1 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

20/04/2024 21:05

Chivas Guadalajara 2 - 0 Queretaro FC MEX D1

13/04/2024 19:00

Pachuca 0 - 1 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

06/04/2024 21:05

Chivas Guadalajara 3 - 2 Puebla MEX D1

30/03/2024 21:00

Monterrey 0 - 2 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

Win

100%

Draw

Lost

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Primera Division de Me...

Played games

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

2.00

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.78

Scored

Avg. per game

1.50

Conceded

Avg. per game

1.00

Scored a goal

In last 6 home matches

YesNo

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 6 home matches

NoYes

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 18 home matches

YesNo

14 (78%)4 (22%)

In last 18 home matches

NoYes

16 (80%)4 (20%)

Toluca

Recent matches

Chivas Guadalajara

Under /Over

(67%)12 6(33%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(65%)13 7(35%)

Under /Over

(39%)7 11(61%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(25%)5 15(75%)

Under /Over

(56%)10 8(44%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(45%)9 11(55%)

/Yes

(50%)9 9(50%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(50%)10 10(50%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

Shots

Toluca

Total shots

13.17 avg / game

Blocked

49 total

Avg. 3.06

Chivas Guadalajara

Total shots

14.25 avg / game

Blocked

51 total

Avg. 3.00

Toluca Pass Chivas Guadalajara

Total passes

8152

Avg. 453 / game

Accurate

—

Ball possession

57%

Total passes

6733

Avg. 396 / game

Accurate

—

Ball possession

53%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Toluca

Played games

Chivas Guadalajara

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.39

Clean sheets

0.45

4.61

Corners

109

5.45

0.00

Throw-ins

0.00

1.17

Offsides

1.45

2.72

GK saves

2.70

Toluca

DISCIPLINARY

Chivas Guadalajara

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.50

1.90

0.17

0.00

9.61

173

Fouls

190

9.50

13.17

237

Tackles

335

16.75

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara on 11 May 2024 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Primera Division de Mexico fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Toluca's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Chivas Guadalajara's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Primera Division de Mexico Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Primera Division de Mexico standings and the Primera Division de Mexico form table to understand exactly where Toluca and Chivas Guadalajara sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Primera Division de Mexico predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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