Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 28 February

Toluca

W W D D D

1st place in Clausura

2-0

28/02/2026 23:00

Chivas Guadalajara

W W L W W

6th place in Clausura

Primera Division de Mexico

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara on 28 February 2026 (kick-off: 23:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara preview before placing your bet.

Toluca are currently 1st with 37 points after 17 matches.
Chivas Guadalajara sit 6th with 29 points from 17 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Toluca to win with probability 46%.
Head-to-head history is evenly balanced: Toluca and Chivas Guadalajara have each won 2 of the last 6 meetings, while 2 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

23:00

2026-02-28

Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara - Prediction & Odds

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

2026-02-28 23:00

STANDINGS UP TO 28/02/2026

Clausura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Toluca	37	17	11	4	2	43	18	25
02 Tigres UANL	36	17	10	6	1	35	16	19
03 CDSyC Cruz Azul	35	17	10	5	2	32	20	12
04 Club America	34	17	10	4	3	33	18	15
05 Monterrey	31	17	9	4	4	33	29	4
06 Chivas Guadalajara	29	17	9	2	6	29	22	7
07 Club Tijuana	24	17	6	6	5	29	23	6
08 FC Juarez	23	17	6	5	6	27	28	-1
09 Pachuca	22	17	6	4	7	21	21	0
10 Pumas U.N.A.M.	21	17	5	6	6	24	25	-1
11 Santos Laguna	20	17	6	2	9	22	28	-6
12 Queretaro FC	20	17	6	2	9	19	29	-10
13 Necaxa	17	17	4	5	8	24	32	-8
14 Atlas	17	17	4	5	8	24	35	-11
15 Atletico San Luis	16	17	5	1	11	25	29	-4
16 Mazatlan FC	14	17	2	8	7	20	29	-9
17 Club Leon	13	17	3	4	10	14	31	-17
18 Puebla	12	17	3	3	11	21	42	-21

Apertura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Pumas U.N.A.M.	36	17	10	6	1	34	17	17
02 Chivas Guadalajara	36	17	11	3	3	33	17	16
03 CDSyC Cruz Azul	33	17	9	6	2	31	18	13
04 Pachuca	31	17	9	4	4	25	19	6
05 Toluca	30	17	8	6	3	28	16	12
06 Atlas	26	17	7	5	5	16	18	-2
07 Tigres UANL	25	17	7	4	6	28	18	10
08 Club America	25	17	7	4	6	20	17	3
09 Club Tijuana	23	17	5	8	4	19	17	2
10 Club Leon	22	17	7	1	9	22	32	-10
11 Queretaro FC	20	17	4	8	5	17	21	-4
12 FC Juarez	19	17	5	4	8	26	32	-6
13 Monterrey	18	17	5	3	9	22	24	-2
14 Atletico San Luis	18	17	5	3	9	24	27	-3
15 Necaxa	18	17	5	3	9	19	25	-6
16 Mazatlan FC	15	17	4	3	10	22	37	-15
17 Puebla	13	17	3	4	10	13	26	-13
18 Santos Laguna	12	17	3	3	11	20	38	-18

Head To Head

21/09/2025 01:00

Chivas Guadalajara

0 - 3

Toluca

MEX D1

16/02/2025 03:10

Toluca

2 - 1

Chivas Guadalajara

MEX D1

07/07/2024 01:00

Chivas Guadalajara

0 - 0

Toluca

MEX D1

12/05/2024 02:10

Toluca

0 - 0

Chivas Guadalajara

MEX D1

09/05/2024 01:05

Chivas Guadalajara

1 - 0

Toluca

MEX D1

31/01/2024 03:10

Chivas Guadalajara

3 - 2

Toluca

MEX D1

Toluca

33%

Draw

33%

Chivas Guadalajara

33%

Toluca Last 6 matches

22/02/2026 01:00

Necaxa 0 - 3 Toluca MEX D1

14/02/2026 03:00

Toluca 1 - 0 Club Tijuana MEX D1

07/02/2026 23:00

Toluca 1 - 1 CDSyC Cruz Azul MEX D1

31/01/2026 01:00

Puebla 0 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

18/01/2026 01:00

Tigres UANL 0 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

15/01/2026 03:10

Toluca 3 - 1 Santos Laguna MEX D1

Win

50%

Draw

50%

Lost

Last 6 matches Chivas Guadalajara

22/02/2026 03:00

CDSyC Cruz Azul 2 - 1 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

15/02/2026 03:05

Chivas Guadalajara 1 - 0 Club America MEX D1

07/02/2026 03:10

Mazatlan FC 1 - 2 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

31/01/2026 23:00

Atletico San Luis 2 - 3 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

17/01/2026 23:00

Chivas Guadalajara 2 - 1 Queretaro FC MEX D1

14/01/2026 03:10

FC Juarez 0 - 1 Chivas Guadalajara MEX D1

Win

83%

Draw

Lost

17%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Primera Division de Me...

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

0.79

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.48

Scored

Avg. per game

0.88

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.53

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

2 (33%)4 (67%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 42 matches

YesNo

22 (52%)20 (48%)

In last 42 matches

NoYes

21 (53%)19 (48%)

Toluca

Recent matches

Chivas Guadalajara

Under /Over

(71%)30 12(29%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(75%)30 10(25%)

Under /Over

(33%)14 28(67%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(50%)20 20(50%)

Under /Over

(43%)18 24(57%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(53%)21 19(47%)

/Yes

(55%)23 19(45%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(53%)21 19(47%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Toluca

Chivas Guadalajara

Shots

Toluca

Total shots

15.48 avg / game

Blocked

161 total

Avg. 4.35

Chivas Guadalajara

Total shots

14.23 avg / game

Blocked

121 total

Avg. 3.46

Toluca Pass Chivas Guadalajara

Total passes

17599

Avg. 419 / game

Accurate

85%

Ball possession

57%

Total passes

16513

Avg. 423 / game

Accurate

84%

Ball possession

56%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Toluca

Played games

Chivas Guadalajara

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.31

Clean sheets

0.35

5.07

213

Corners

205

5.13

17.43

732

Throw-ins

646

16.15

1.55

Offsides

1.78

2.12

GK saves

2.30

Toluca

DISCIPLINARY

Chivas Guadalajara

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

2.12

1.65

0.14

0.13

11.26

473

Fouls

402

10.05

8.62

362

Tackles

276

6.90

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara on 28 February 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Primera Division de Mexico fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Toluca's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Chivas Guadalajara's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Primera Division de Mexico Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Primera Division de Mexico standings and the Primera Division de Mexico form table to understand exactly where Toluca and Chivas Guadalajara sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Primera Division de Mexico predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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