Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 04 January

Negelle Arsi

D D W D W

2nd place in Ethiopia Premier League

2-0

04/01/2026 06:00

Defence Force FC

D L L W L

3rd place in Ethiopia Premier League

Ethiopia Premier League

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC on 04 January 2026 (kick-off: 06:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC preview before placing your bet.

Negelle Arsi are currently 2nd with 60 points after 38 matches.
Defence Force FC sit 3rd with 57 points from 38 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: a draw with probability 32%.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

06:00

2026-01-04

Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC - Prediction & Odds

Negelle Arsi

Defence Force FC

2026-01-04 06:00

STANDINGS UP TO 04/01/2026

Overall Table	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Sidama Bunna	68	38	19	11	8	43	23	20
02 Negelle Arsi	60	38	15	15	8	37	30	7
03 Defence Force FC	57	38	14	15	9	44	31	13
04 Fasil Kenema	55	38	14	13	11	28	28	0
05 Ethio Electric FC	54	38	13	15	10	32	26	6
06 Kedus Giorgis	54	38	14	12	12	33	31	2
07 Wolaita Dicha	51	38	11	18	9	37	31	6
08 Ethiopia Bunna	51	38	13	12	13	40	39	1
09 Hawassa City FC	50	38	12	14	12	37	33	4
10 Sheger Ketema	50	37	11	17	9	34	30	4
11 Bahir Dar Kenema FC	48	38	9	21	8	28	28	0
12 Hadiya Hossana	48	38	11	15	12	31	35	-4
13 Ethiopia Nigd Bank	47	38	11	14	13	45	45	0
14 Adama City	46	38	10	16	12	35	39	-4
15 Welwalo Adigrat	46	38	10	16	12	32	36	-4
16 Ethiopian Insurance FC	43	37	9	16	12	29	31	-2
17 Shire Endaselassie FC	42	38	9	15	14	24	32	-8
18 Dire Dawa	42	38	9	15	14	26	42	-16
19 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC	40	38	8	16	14	28	37	-9
20 Arba Minch	35	38	7	14	17	30	46	-16

Negelle Arsi Last 6 matches

30/12/2025 06:00

Dire Dawa 0 - 3 Negelle Arsi ETH PR

24/12/2025 06:00

Negelle Arsi 1 - 0 Welwalo Adigrat ETH PR

20/12/2025 09:00

Fasil Kenema 1 - 0 Negelle Arsi ETH PR

13/12/2025 03:25

Akaki Kality 0 - 4 Negelle Arsi Ethiopia C

07/12/2025 08:00

Hadiya Hossana 1 - 2 Negelle Arsi ETH PR

02/12/2025 11:00

Negelle Arsi 2 - 2 Sheger Ketema ETH PR

Win

67%

Draw

17%

Lost

17%

Last 6 matches Defence Force FC

31/12/2025 08:00

Mekelakeya 0 - 1 Ethiopia Bunna ETH PR

26/12/2025 08:00

Adama City 1 - 3 Mekelakeya ETH PR

21/12/2025 09:00

Mekelakeya 0 - 0 Ethio Electric FC ETH PR

13/12/2025 08:30

Mekelakeya 1 - 1 Dire Dawa Ethiopia C

07/12/2025 06:00

Hawassa City FC 1 - 1 Mekelakeya ETH PR

02/12/2025 08:00

Mekelakeya 1 - 1 Dire Dawa ETH PR

Win

Draw

100%

Lost

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Ethiopia Premier Leagu...

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Negelle Arsi

Defence Force FC

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

0.53

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.47

Scored

Avg. per game

0.55

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.42

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 38 matches

YesNo

16 (42%)22 (58%)

In last 38 matches

NoYes

16 (42%)22 (58%)

Negelle Arsi

Recent matches

Defence Force FC

Under /Over

(61%)23 15(39%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(63%)24 14(37%)

Under /Over

(24%)9 29(76%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(37%)14 24(63%)

Under /Over

(24%)9 29(76%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(29%)11 27(71%)

/Yes

(37%)14 24(63%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(39%)15 23(61%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Negelle Arsi

Defence Force FC

Shots

Negelle Arsi

Total shots

7.38 avg / game

Blocked

2 total

Avg. 1.00

Defence Force FC

Total shots

8.89 avg / game

Blocked

2 total

Avg. 1.00

Negelle Arsi Pass Defence Force FC

Total passes

—

Avg. — / game

Accurate

—

Ball possession

49%

Total passes

—

Avg. — / game

Accurate

—

Ball possession

56%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Negelle Arsi

Played games

Defence Force FC

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.45

Clean sheets

0.47

3.29

125

Corners

199

5.24

2.84

108

Throw-ins

115

3.03

1.87

Offsides

1.03

0.00

GK saves

0.00

Negelle Arsi

DISCIPLINARY

Defence Force FC

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

2.47

1.68

0.08

0.05

9.00

342

Fouls

279

7.34

0.00

Tackles

0.00

NEXT MATCHES

No upcoming matches.

NEXT MATCHES

No upcoming matches.

How We Build the Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC on 04 January 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Ethiopia Premier League fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Negelle Arsi vs Defence Force FC Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Negelle Arsi's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Defence Force FC's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Ethiopia Premier League Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Ethiopia Premier League standings and the Ethiopia Premier League form table to understand exactly where Negelle Arsi and Defence Force FC sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Ethiopia Premier League predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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