Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction, analysis & Match Preview – February 21

Necaxa

L L D W W

13th place in Clausura

0-3

21/02/2026 21:00

Toluca

W W D D D

1st place in Clausura

Primera Division de Mexico

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Necaxa vs Toluca on February 21, 2026 (kick-off: 21:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Necaxa vs Toluca preview before placing for you.

Necaxa are currently 13th with 17 points after 17 matches.
Toluca sit 1st with 37 points from 17 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Toluca to win with probability 55%.
Head-to-head history favors Toluca, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings. Necaxa have no wins, while 2 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

21:00

2026-02-21

Necaxa vs Toluca - Prediction & Odds

Necaxa

Toluca

2026-02-21 21:00

STANDINGS UP TO 21/02/2026

Clausura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Toluca	37	17	11	4	2	43	18	25
02 Tigres UANL	36	17	10	6	1	35	16	19
03 CDSyC Cruz Azul	35	17	10	5	2	32	20	12
04 Club America	34	17	10	4	3	33	18	15
05 Monterrey	31	17	9	4	4	33	29	4
06 Chivas Guadalajara	29	17	9	2	6	29	22	7
07 Club Tijuana	24	17	6	6	5	29	23	6
08 FC Juarez	23	17	6	5	6	27	28	-1
09 Pachuca	22	17	6	4	7	21	21	0
10 Pumas U.N.A.M.	21	17	5	6	6	24	25	-1
11 Santos Laguna	20	17	6	2	9	22	28	-6
12 Queretaro FC	20	17	6	2	9	19	29	-10
13 Necaxa	17	17	4	5	8	24	32	-8
14 Atlas	17	17	4	5	8	24	35	-11
15 Atletico San Luis	16	17	5	1	11	25	29	-4
16 Mazatlan FC	14	17	2	8	7	20	29	-9
17 Club Leon	13	17	3	4	10	14	31	-17
18 Puebla	12	17	3	3	11	21	42	-21

Apertura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Pumas U.N.A.M.	36	17	10	6	1	34	17	17
02 Chivas Guadalajara	36	17	11	3	3	33	17	16
03 CDSyC Cruz Azul	33	17	9	6	2	31	18	13
04 Pachuca	31	17	9	4	4	25	19	6
05 Toluca	30	17	8	6	3	28	16	12
06 Atlas	26	17	7	5	5	16	18	-2
07 Tigres UANL	25	17	7	4	6	28	18	10
08 Club America	25	17	7	4	6	20	17	3
09 Club Tijuana	23	17	5	8	4	19	17	2
10 Club Leon	22	17	7	1	9	22	32	-10
11 Queretaro FC	20	17	4	8	5	17	21	-4
12 FC Juarez	19	17	5	4	8	26	32	-6
13 Monterrey	18	17	5	3	9	22	24	-2
14 Atletico San Luis	18	17	5	3	9	24	27	-3
15 Necaxa	18	17	5	3	9	19	25	-6
16 Mazatlan FC	15	17	4	3	10	22	37	-15
17 Puebla	13	17	3	4	10	13	26	-13
18 Santos Laguna	12	17	3	3	11	20	38	-18

Head To Head

12/07/2025 21:00

Toluca

3 - 1

Necaxa

MEX D1

08/03/2025 19:00

Toluca

5 - 2

Necaxa

MEX D1

27/10/2024 20:00

Necaxa

1 - 3

Toluca

MEX D1

10/02/2024 19:00

Necaxa

3 - 3

Toluca

MEX D1

02/07/2023 14:00

Toluca

0 - 0

Necaxa

MEX D1

30/04/2023 14:00

Toluca

3 - 0

Necaxa

MEX D1

Necaxa

Draw

33%

Toluca

67%

Necaxa Last 6 matches

14/02/2026 21:05

FC Juarez 1 - 2 Necaxa MEX D1

06/02/2026 21:00

Necaxa 4 - 1 Atletico San Luis MEX D1

31/01/2026 18:00

Club America 2 - 0 Necaxa MEX D1

17/01/2026 19:00

Necaxa 0 - 1 Atlas MEX D1

13/01/2026 21:00

Necaxa 0 - 2 Monterrey MEX D1

10/01/2026 21:00

Santos Laguna 1 - 3 Necaxa MEX D1

Win

50%

Draw

Lost

50%

Last 6 matches Toluca

13/02/2026 23:00

Toluca 1 - 0 Club Tijuana MEX D1

07/02/2026 19:00

Toluca 1 - 1 CDSyC Cruz Azul MEX D1

30/01/2026 21:00

Puebla 0 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

17/01/2026 21:00

Tigres UANL 0 - 0 Toluca MEX D1

14/01/2026 23:10

Toluca 3 - 1 Santos Laguna MEX D1

10/01/2026 23:00

Monterrey 0 - 1 Toluca MEX D1

Win

50%

Draw

50%

Lost

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Primera Division de Me...

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Necaxa

Toluca

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

0.65

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.59

Scored

Avg. per game

1.10

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.57

Scored a goal

In last 6 home matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 home matches

NoYes

2 (33%)4 (67%)

In last 17 home matches

YesNo

8 (47%)9 (53%)

In last 17 home matches

NoYes

14 (67%)7 (33%)

Necaxa

Recent matches

Toluca

Under /Over

(65%)11 6(35%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(86%)18 3(14%)

Under /Over

(29%)5 12(71%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(43%)9 12(57%)

Under /Over

(24%)4 13(76%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(48%)10 11(52%)

/Yes

(47%)8 9(53%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(71%)15 6(29%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Necaxa

Toluca

Shots

Necaxa

Total shots

14.76 avg / game

Blocked

42 total

Avg. 3.23

Toluca

Total shots

17.52 avg / game

Blocked

78 total

Avg. 4.33

Necaxa Pass Toluca

Total passes

6252

Avg. 368 / game

Accurate

80%

Ball possession

50%

Total passes

9335

Avg. 445 / game

Accurate

86%

Ball possession

58%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Necaxa

Played games

Toluca

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.18

Clean sheets

0.24

4.59

Corners

103

4.90

21.00

357

Throw-ins

354

16.86

0.88

Offsides

1.76

2.47

GK saves

2.10

Necaxa

DISCIPLINARY

Toluca

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

2.00

2.00

0.12

0.10

12.24

208

Fouls

236

11.24

9.65

164

Tackles

192

9.14

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Necaxa vs Toluca Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Necaxa vs Toluca on 21 February 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Primera Division de Mexico fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Necaxa vs Toluca Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Necaxa's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Toluca's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Primera Division de Mexico Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Primera Division de Mexico standings and the Primera Division de Mexico form table to understand exactly where Necaxa and Toluca sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Primera Division de Mexico predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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