Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 04 October

Nacional Montevideo

W W W W W

2nd place in Apertura

2-1

04/10/2025 17:00

Cerro Largo

L L W D W

8th place in Apertura

Uruguay Primera Division

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo on 04 October 2025 (kick-off: 17:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo preview before placing your bet.

Nacional Montevideo are currently 2nd with 31 points after 15 matches.
Cerro Largo sit 8th with 21 points from 15 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Nacional Montevideo to win with probability 67%.
Head-to-head history favors Nacional Montevideo, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Cerro Largo have no wins, while one match ended in a draw.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

17:00

2025-10-04

Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo - Prediction & Odds

Nacional Montevideo

Cerro Largo

2025-10-04 17:00

STANDINGS UP TO 04/10/2025

Apertura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Liverpool URU	32	15	9	5	1	22	9	13
02 Nacional Montevideo	31	15	9	4	2	35	16	19
03 CA Juventud	30	15	9	3	3	23	15	8
04 CA Penarol	27	15	8	3	4	21	17	4
05 Defensor Sporting Montevideo	24	15	7	3	5	17	12	5
06 Racing Club Montevideo	23	15	6	5	4	14	10	4
07 Boston River	22	15	6	4	5	16	17	-1
08 Cerro Largo	21	15	5	6	4	15	16	-1
09 Plaza Colonia	19	15	5	4	6	13	13	0
10 Montevideo City Torque	17	15	4	5	6	16	22	-6
11 Club Atletico Progreso	15	15	3	6	6	17	27	-10
12 Cerro Montevideo	14	15	3	6	6	13	20	-7
13 Danubio FC	12	15	1	9	5	12	17	-5
14 Wanderers FC	12	15	2	6	7	12	17	-5
15 Miramar Misiones FC	12	15	3	3	9	16	24	-8
16 CA River Plate	10	15	2	4	9	10	20	-10

Clausura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 CA Penarol	35	15	11	2	2	30	12	18
02 Nacional Montevideo	27	15	8	6	1	25	11	14
03 Montevideo City Torque	27	15	8	3	4	28	17	11
04 Boston River	26	15	6	8	1	26	10	16
05 Cerro Largo	25	15	7	4	4	19	14	5
06 Liverpool URU	25	15	7	4	4	19	16	3
07 Cerro Montevideo	24	15	7	3	5	13	13	0
08 Defensor Sporting Montevideo	23	15	7	2	6	13	16	-3
09 Danubio FC	21	15	6	3	6	18	13	5
10 Club Atletico Progreso	18	15	5	3	7	17	23	-6
11 Racing Club Montevideo	17	15	4	5	6	14	22	-8
12 CA Juventud	16	15	4	4	7	8	13	-5
13 CA River Plate	14	15	3	5	7	12	18	-6
14 Miramar Misiones FC	13	15	3	4	8	17	26	-9
15 Plaza Colonia	8	15	2	2	11	9	26	-17
16 Wanderers FC	7	15	1	4	10	7	25	-18

Torneo Intermedio Group A	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 CA Penarol	16	7	5	1	1	15	5	10
02 Defensor Sporting Montevideo	14	7	4	2	1	12	10	2
03 Wanderers FC	12	7	3	3	1	6	5	1
04 Plaza Colonia	8	7	1	5	1	6	7	-1
05 Liverpool URU	8	7	2	2	3	10	12	-2
06 Cerro Montevideo	8	7	2	2	3	7	9	-2
07 CA River Plate	5	7	1	2	4	6	10	-4
08 Cerro Largo	3	7	0	3	4	7	11	-4

Torneo Intermedio Group B	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Nacional Montevideo	21	7	7	0	0	16	6	10
02 CA Juventud	15	7	5	0	2	14	11	3
03 Racing Club Montevideo	13	7	4	1	2	11	6	5
04 Danubio FC	10	7	3	1	3	11	11	0
05 Boston River	7	7	2	1	4	8	12	-4
06 Club Atletico Progreso	6	7	2	0	5	4	10	-6
07 Montevideo City Torque	5	7	1	2	4	10	12	-2
08 Miramar Misiones FC	4	7	1	1	5	2	8	-6

Head To Head

06/04/2025 16:30

Cerro Largo

0 - 4

Nacional Montevideo

URU D1

13/10/2024 15:00

Cerro Largo

0 - 1

Nacional Montevideo

URU D1

23/06/2024 14:00

Cerro Largo

0 - 4

Nacional Montevideo

URU D1

06/04/2024 17:00

Nacional Montevideo

1 - 0

Cerro Largo

URU D1

26/08/2023 17:00

Cerro Largo

2 - 2

Nacional Montevideo

URU D1

22/07/2023 18:30

Nacional Montevideo

1 - 0

Cerro Largo

URU D1

Nacional Montevideo

83%

Draw

17%

Cerro Largo

Nacional Montevideo Last 6 matches

20/09/2025 17:30

Nacional Montevideo 3 - 1 Liverpool URU URU D1

14/09/2025 17:00

Plaza Colonia 1 - 2 Nacional Montevideo URU D1

11/09/2025 19:30

Nacional Montevideo 1 - 2 Plaza Colonia U Cup

07/09/2025 17:00

Nacional Montevideo 3 - 0 Racing Club Montevideo URU D1

30/08/2025 15:00

CA River Plate 0 - 3 Nacional Montevideo URU D1

26/08/2025 19:30

Huracan FC 1 - 2 Nacional Montevideo U Cup

Win

83%

Draw

Lost

17%

Last 6 matches Cerro Largo

20/09/2025 12:00

Montevideo City Torque 1 - 0 Cerro Largo URU D1

13/09/2025 17:00

Cerro Largo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Montevideo URU D1

10/09/2025 18:00

Cerro Largo 0 - 1 Tacuarembo U Cup

07/09/2025 10:00

Cerro Montevideo 0 - 1 Cerro Largo URU D1

01/09/2025 18:00

Cerro Largo 0 - 1 Wanderers FC URU D1

23/08/2025 19:30

Miramar Misiones FC 1 - 1 Cerro Largo URU D1

Win

33%

Draw

17%

Lost

50%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Uruguay Primera Divisi...

Played games

Goals

Scored

499

Avg. per game

1.66

Conceded

292

Avg. per game

0.97

Scored

252

Avg. per game

0.99

Conceded

284

Avg. per game

1.12

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 300 matches

YesNo

235 (78%)65 (22%)

In last 300 matches

NoYes

158 (62%)96 (38%)

Nacional Montevideo

Recent matches

Cerro Largo

Under /Over

(67%)30 15(33%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(64%)29 16(36%)

Under /Over

(36%)16 29(64%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(18%)8 37(82%)

Under /Over

(36%)16 29(64%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(40%)18 27(60%)

/Yes

(53%)24 21(47%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(44%)20 25(56%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Nacional Montevideo

Cerro Largo

Shots

Nacional Montevideo

Total shots

8.96 avg / game

Blocked

76 total

Avg. 2.92

Cerro Largo

Total shots

7.94 avg / game

Blocked

17 total

Avg. 2.83

Nacional Montevideo Pass Cerro Largo

Total passes

15669

Avg. 348 / game

Accurate

73%

Ball possession

53%

Total passes

3288

Avg. 274 / game

Accurate

65%

Ball possession

48%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Nacional Montevideo

300

Played games

Cerro Largo

254

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.40

119

Clean sheets

0.35

4.50

1351

Corners

1014

3.99

1.04

312

Throw-ins

184

0.72

0.26

Offsides

0.09

1.49

447

GK saves

459

1.81

Nacional Montevideo

DISCIPLINARY

Cerro Largo

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

2.35

704

644

2.54

0.14

0.13

2.12

636

Fouls

217

0.85

2.42

727

Tackles

194

0.76

NEXT MATCHES

08/02

Nacional Montevideo

Club Atletico Progreso

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo on 04 October 2025 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Uruguay Primera Division fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Nacional Montevideo's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Cerro Largo's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Uruguay Primera Division Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Uruguay Primera Division standings and the Uruguay Primera Division form table to understand exactly where Nacional Montevideo and Cerro Largo sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Uruguay Primera Division predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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