Derby County vs Southampton: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 04 October

Derby County

W L W L W

8th place in England Championship

1-1

04/10/2025 10:00

Southampton

W W W D D

4th place in England Championship

England Championship

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Derby County vs Southampton on 04 October 2025 (kick-off: 10:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Derby County vs Southampton preview before placing your bet.

Derby County are currently 8th with 69 points after 46 matches.
Southampton sit 4th with 80 points from 46 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Southampton to win with probability 45%.
Head-to-head history is evenly balanced: Derby County and Southampton have each won 1 of the last 6 meetings, while 4 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

10:00

2025-10-04

Derby County vs Southampton - Prediction & Odds

Derby County

Southampton

2025-10-04 10:00

STANDINGS UP TO 04/10/2025

Overall Table	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Coventry City	95	46	28	11	7	97	45	52
02 Ipswich Town	84	46	23	15	8	80	47	33
03 Millwall	83	46	24	11	11	64	49	15
04 Southampton	80	46	22	14	10	82	56	26
05 Middlesbrough	80	46	22	14	10	72	47	25
06 Hull City	73	46	21	10	15	70	66	4
07 Wrexham	71	46	19	14	13	69	65	4
08 Derby County	69	46	20	9	17	67	59	8
09 Norwich City	65	46	19	8	19	63	56	7
10 Birmingham City	64	46	17	13	16	57	56	1
11 Swansea City	64	46	18	10	18	57	59	-2
12 Bristol City	62	46	17	11	18	59	59	0
13 Sheffield United	60	46	18	6	22	66	66	0
14 Preston North End	60	46	15	15	16	55	62	-7
15 Queens Park Rangers (QPR)	58	46	16	10	20	61	73	-12
16 Watford	57	46	14	15	17	53	65	-12
17 Stoke City	55	46	15	10	21	51	56	-5
18 Portsmouth	55	46	14	13	19	49	64	-15
19 Charlton Athletic	53	46	13	14	19	44	58	-14
20 Blackburn Rovers	52	46	13	13	20	42	56	-14
21 West Bromwich(WBA)	51	46	13	14	19	48	58	-10
22 Oxford United	47	46	11	14	21	45	59	-14
23 Leicester City	46	46	12	16	18	58	68	-10
24 Sheffield Wednesday	0	46	2	12	32	29	89	-60

Head To Head

16/01/2019 15:45

Southampton

2 - 2

Derby County

ENG FAC

05/01/2019 11:00

Derby County

2 - 2

Southampton

ENG FAC

21/07/2018 10:00

Derby County

3 - 0

Southampton

INT CF

18/02/2012 11:00

Southampton

4 - 0

Derby County

ENG LCH

15/10/2011 10:00

Derby County

1 - 1

Southampton

ENG LCH

10/03/2009 15:45

Southampton

1 - 1

Derby County

ENG LCH

Derby County

17%

Draw

67%

Southampton

17%

Derby County Last 6 matches

27/09/2025 07:30

Wrexham 1 - 1 Derby County ENG LCH

20/09/2025 10:00

Derby County 0 - 1 Preston North End ENG LCH

13/09/2025 10:00

West Bromwich(WBA) 0 - 1 Derby County ENG LCH

30/08/2025 10:00

Ipswich Town 2 - 2 Derby County ENG LCH

26/08/2025 14:45

Burnley 2 - 1 Derby County ENG LC

22/08/2025 15:00

Derby County 1 - 1 Bristol City ENG LCH

Win

17%

Draw

50%

Lost

33%

Last 6 matches Southampton

27/09/2025 10:00

Southampton 1 - 1 Middlesbrough ENG LCH

23/09/2025 15:00

Liverpool 2 - 1 Southampton ENG LC

20/09/2025 10:00

Hull City 3 - 1 Southampton ENG LCH

14/09/2025 07:00

Southampton 0 - 0 Portsmouth ENG LCH

30/08/2025 10:00

Watford 2 - 2 Southampton ENG LCH

26/08/2025 14:45

Norwich City 0 - 3 Southampton ENG LC

Win

17%

Draw

50%

Lost

33%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues England Championship

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Goals

Scored

223

Avg. per game

0.74

Conceded

206

Avg. per game

0.69

Scored

223

Avg. per game

0.74

Conceded

257

Avg. per game

0.86

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 300 matches

YesNo

160 (53%)140 (47%)

In last 300 matches

NoYes

149 (50%)151 (50%)

Derby County

Recent matches

Southampton

Under /Over

(78%)35 10(22%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(84%)38 7(16%)

Under /Over

(29%)13 32(71%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(40%)18 27(60%)

Under /Over

(51%)23 22(49%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(53%)24 21(47%)

/Yes

(64%)29 16(36%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(69%)31 14(31%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Derby County

Southampton

Shots

Derby County

Total shots

11.42 avg / game

Blocked

831 total

Avg. 3.48

Southampton

Total shots

12.47 avg / game

Blocked

941 total

Avg. 3.72

Derby County Pass Southampton

Total passes

100963

Avg. 382 / game

Accurate

72%

Ball possession

49%

Total passes

127640

Avg. 480 / game

Accurate

82%

Ball possession

53%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Derby County

300

Played games

Southampton

300

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.32

Clean sheets

0.21

5.08

1524

Corners

1627

5.42

21.28

6384

Throw-ins

4859

16.20

1.87

562

Offsides

462

1.54

2.28

684

GK saves

784

2.61

Derby County

DISCIPLINARY

Southampton

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.76

527

553

1.84

0.05

0.05

9.97

2991

Fouls

2986

9.95

12.24

3673

Tackles

4023

13.41

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Derby County vs Southampton Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Derby County vs Southampton on 04 October 2025 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this England Championship fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Derby County vs Southampton Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Derby County's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Southampton's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

England Championship Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live England Championship standings and the England Championship form table to understand exactly where Derby County and Southampton sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our England Championship predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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