Benfica vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 28 January

Benfica

W L W L L

24th place in Group A

4-2

28/01/2026 16:00

Real Madrid

W W W L L

9th place in Group A

UEFA Champions League

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Benfica vs Real Madrid on 28 January 2026 (kick-off: 16:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Benfica vs Real Madrid preview before placing your bet.

Benfica are currently 24th with 9 points after 8 matches.
Real Madrid sit 9th with 15 points from 8 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Real Madrid to win with probability 55%.
Head-to-head history favors Benfica, who have won 1 of the last 1 meetings. Real Madrid have no wins, while 0 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

16:00

2026-01-28

Benfica vs Real Madrid - Prediction & Odds

Benfica

Real Madrid

2026-01-28 16:00

STANDINGS UP TO 28/01/2026

Group A	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Arsenal	24	8	8	0	0	23	4	19
02 Bayern Munchen	21	8	7	0	1	22	8	14
03 Liverpool	18	8	6	0	2	20	8	12
04 Tottenham Hotspur	17	8	5	2	1	17	7	10
05 FC Barcelona	16	8	5	1	2	22	14	8
06 Chelsea	16	8	5	1	2	17	10	7
07 Sporting CP	16	8	5	1	2	17	11	6
08 Manchester City	16	8	5	1	2	15	9	6
09 Real Madrid	15	8	5	0	3	21	12	9
10 Inter Milan	15	8	5	0	3	15	7	8
11 Paris Saint Germain (PSG)	14	8	4	2	2	21	11	10
12 Newcastle United	14	8	4	2	2	17	7	10
13 Juventus	13	8	3	4	1	14	10	4
14 Atletico Madrid	13	8	4	1	3	17	15	2
15 Atalanta	13	8	4	1	3	10	10	0
16 Bayer Leverkusen	12	8	3	3	2	13	14	-1
17 Borussia Dortmund	11	8	3	2	3	19	17	2
18 Olympiakos Piraeus	11	8	3	2	3	10	14	-4
19 Club Brugge	10	8	3	1	4	15	17	-2
20 Galatasaray	10	8	3	1	4	9	11	-2
21 Monaco	10	8	2	4	2	8	14	-6
22 Qarabag	10	8	3	1	4	13	21	-8
23 Bodo Glimt	9	8	2	3	3	14	15	-1
24 Benfica	9	8	3	0	5	10	12	-2
25 Marseille	9	8	3	0	5	11	14	-3
26 AEP Paphos	9	8	2	3	3	8	11	-3
27 Saint Gilloise	9	8	3	0	5	8	17	-9
28 PSV Eindhoven	8	8	2	2	4	16	16	0
29 Athletic Bilbao	8	8	2	2	4	9	14	-5
30 Napoli	8	8	2	2	4	9	15	-6
31 FC Copenhagen	8	8	2	2	4	12	21	-9
32 AFC Ajax	6	8	2	0	6	8	21	-13
33 Eintracht Frankfurt	4	8	1	1	6	10	21	-11
34 Slavia Praha	3	8	0	3	5	5	19	-14
35 Villarreal	1	8	0	1	7	5	18	-13
36 FC Kairat Almaty	1	8	0	1	7	7	22	-15

Head To Head

27/07/2012 14:00

Benfica

5 - 2

Real Madrid

Eusebio Cup

Benfica

100%

Draw

Real Madrid

Benfica Last 6 matches

25/01/2026 14:00

Benfica 4 - 0 Estrela da Amadora POR D1

21/01/2026 16:00

Juventus 2 - 0 Benfica UEFA CL

17/01/2026 16:30

Rio Ave 0 - 2 Benfica POR D1

14/01/2026 16:45

FC Porto 1 - 0 Benfica POR CUP

07/01/2026 16:00

Benfica 1 - 3 Sporting Braga PORLC

03/01/2026 14:00

Benfica 3 - 1 Estoril POR D1

Win

50%

Draw

Lost

50%

Last 6 matches Real Madrid

24/01/2026 16:00

Villarreal 0 - 2 Real Madrid SPA D1

20/01/2026 16:00

Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco UEFA CL

17/01/2026 09:00

Real Madrid 2 - 0 Levante SPA D1

14/01/2026 16:00

Albacete 3 - 2 Real Madrid SPA CUP

11/01/2026 15:00

FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid SPA SUC

08/01/2026 15:00

Atletico Madrid 1 - 2 Real Madrid SPA SUC

Win

67%

Draw

Lost

33%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues UEFA Champions League

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Goals

Scored

341

Avg. per game

1.14

Conceded

151

Avg. per game

0.50

Scored

364

Avg. per game

1.21

Conceded

164

Avg. per game

0.55

Scored a goal

In last 6 matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 matches

NoYes

4 (67%)2 (33%)

In last 300 matches

YesNo

204 (68%)96 (32%)

In last 300 matches

NoYes

224 (75%)76 (25%)

Benfica

Recent matches

Real Madrid

Under /Over

(89%)40 5(11%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(89%)40 5(11%)

Under /Over

(42%)19 26(58%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(44%)20 25(56%)

Under /Over

(53%)24 21(47%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(56%)25 20(44%)

/Yes

(49%)22 23(51%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(64%)29 16(36%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Benfica

Real Madrid

Shots

Benfica

Total shots

15.17 avg / game

Blocked

928 total

Avg. 4.14

Real Madrid

Total shots

16.15 avg / game

Blocked

1066 total

Avg. 4.28

Benfica Pass Real Madrid

Total passes

127763

Avg. 505 / game

Accurate

84%

Ball possession

57%

Total passes

168163

Avg. 586 / game

Accurate

89%

Ball possession

58%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Benfica

300

Played games

Real Madrid

300

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.43

128

Clean sheets

110

0.37

6.59

1977

Corners

1759

5.86

15.46

4638

Throw-ins

4519

15.06

1.83

549

Offsides

564

1.88

2.28

683

GK saves

875

2.92

Benfica

DISCIPLINARY

Real Madrid

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.89

567

536

1.79

0.07

0.08

10.72

3215

Fouls

2913

9.71

14.00

4200

Tackles

3868

12.89

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Benfica vs Real Madrid on 28 January 2026 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this UEFA Champions League fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Benfica's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Real Madrid's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

UEFA Champions League Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live UEFA Champions League standings and the UEFA Champions League form table to understand exactly where Benfica and Real Madrid sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our UEFA Champions League predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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