Toluca vs Monterrey: Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – 11 May

Toluca

W W W W W

1st place in Autumn

2-1

11/05/2025 01:00

Monterrey

W L W L W

7th place in Autumn

Primera Division de Mexico

MATCH INTRO

Betiball's prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey on 11 May 2025 (kick-off: 01:00) is built from both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and tactical analysis. Read the full Toluca vs Monterrey preview before placing your bet.

Toluca are currently 1st with 37 points after 17 matches.
Monterrey sit 7th with 28 points from 17 matches.
Our algorithm prediction: Toluca to win with probability 48%.
Head-to-head history is evenly balanced: Toluca and Monterrey have each won 2 of the last 6 meetings, while 2 matches ended in draws.

Predictions 1x2 Under/Over 2.5 1X2 Live Half Time Half Time / Full Time Both To Score Double chance Handicap Scorers Corners Cards

Home team Away team

Probability %

Pred

Correct

Avg.g

Coef.

Score.

Live coef.

Weather

01:00

2025-05-11

Toluca vs Monterrey - Prediction & Odds

Toluca

Monterrey

2025-05-11 01:00

STANDINGS UP TO 11/05/2025

Autumn	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 Toluca	37	17	11	4	2	41	22	19
02 Club America	34	17	10	4	3	34	10	24
03 CDSyC Cruz Azul	33	17	9	6	2	26	16	10
04 Tigres UANL	33	17	10	3	4	24	14	10
05 Necaxa	31	17	10	1	6	36	29	7
06 Club Leon	30	17	9	3	5	24	21	3
07 Monterrey	28	17	8	4	5	32	23	9
08 Pachuca	28	17	8	4	5	29	23	6
09 FC Juarez	24	17	6	6	5	16	21	-5
10 Pumas U.N.A.M.	21	17	6	3	8	23	26	-3
11 Chivas Guadalajara	21	17	5	6	6	18	21	-3
12 Queretaro FC	20	17	6	2	9	17	24	-7
13 Club Tijuana	19	17	6	1	10	29	35	-6
14 Atlas	18	17	4	6	7	25	32	-7
15 Atletico San Luis	18	17	6	0	11	20	33	-13
16 Mazatlan FC	17	17	4	5	8	16	26	-10
17 Puebla	9	17	2	3	12	12	25	-13
18 Santos Laguna	7	17	2	1	14	15	36	-21

Apertura	PTS	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-

01 CDSyC Cruz Azul	42	17	13	3	1	39	12	27
02 Toluca	35	17	10	5	2	38	16	22
03 Tigres UANL	34	17	10	4	3	25	15	10
04 Pumas U.N.A.M.	31	17	9	4	4	21	13	8
05 Monterrey	31	17	9	4	4	26	19	7
06 Atletico San Luis	30	17	9	3	5	27	19	8
07 Club Tijuana	29	17	8	5	4	24	25	-1
08 Club America	27	17	8	3	6	27	21	6
09 Chivas Guadalajara	25	17	7	4	6	24	15	9
10 Atlas	22	17	5	7	5	17	23	-6
11 Club Leon	18	17	3	9	5	21	23	-2
12 FC Juarez	17	17	5	2	10	22	36	-14
13 Necaxa	15	17	3	6	8	20	26	-6
14 Mazatlan FC	14	17	2	8	7	10	19	-9
15 Puebla	14	17	4	2	11	17	31	-14
16 Pachuca	13	17	3	4	10	20	29	-9
17 Queretaro FC	12	17	3	3	11	13	31	-18
18 Santos Laguna	10	17	2	4	11	12	30	-18

Head To Head

08/05/2025 01:00

Monterrey

3 - 2

Toluca

MEX D1

19/01/2025 01:00

Toluca

1 - 1

Monterrey

MEX D1

01/09/2024 01:00

Monterrey

1 - 2

Toluca

MEX D1

19/02/2024 02:10

Monterrey

0 - 0

Toluca

MEX D1

31/08/2023 01:00

Toluca

1 - 0

Monterrey

MEX D1

06/02/2023 01:10

Monterrey

2 - 1

Toluca

MEX D1

Toluca

33%

Draw

33%

Monterrey

33%

Toluca Last 6 matches

08/05/2025 01:00

Monterrey 3 - 2 Toluca MEX D1

20/04/2025 01:05

Toluca 2 - 2 CDSyC Cruz Azul MEX D1

17/04/2025 02:00

Atletico San Luis 0 - 1 Toluca MEX D1

13/04/2025 01:05

Atlas 2 - 3 Toluca MEX D1

07/04/2025 00:00

Toluca 2 - 1 Santos Laguna MEX D1

29/03/2025 23:00

Toluca 3 - 2 Pachuca MEX D1

Win

67%

Draw

17%

Lost

17%

Last 6 matches Monterrey

08/05/2025 01:00

Monterrey 3 - 2 Toluca MEX D1

05/05/2025 01:30

Monterrey 2 - 0 Pumas U.N.A.M. MEX D1

28/04/2025 01:30

Monterrey 1 - 2 Pachuca MEX D1

21/04/2025 01:05

Club Leon 0 - 2 Monterrey MEX D1

17/04/2025 01:00

Monterrey 1 - 0 Club America MEX D1

13/04/2025 01:00

Tigres UANL 2 - 1 Monterrey MEX D1

Win

67%

Draw

Lost

33%

Overall Home/Away

Full time First half Second half

All leagues Primera Division de Me...

Goals use the selected half; shots, passes and possession are averaged over full matches in the sample.

Played games

Toluca

Monterrey

Goals

Scored

Avg. per game

1.33

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.57

Scored

Avg. per game

1.13

Conceded

Avg. per game

0.78

Scored a goal

In last 6 home matches

YesNo

3 (50%)3 (50%)

In last 6 home matches

NoYes

5 (83%)1 (17%)

In last 21 home matches

YesNo

15 (71%)6 (29%)

In last 21 home matches

NoYes

17 (74%)6 (26%)

Toluca

Recent matches

Monterrey

Under /Over

(95%)20 1(5%)

1.5

Full Time

Under /Over

(78%)18 5(22%)

Under /Over

(52%)11 10(48%)

1.5

1st Half

Under /Over

(39%)9 14(61%)

Under /Over

(62%)13 8(38%)

1.5

2nd Half

Under /Over

(57%)13 10(43%)

/Yes

(57%)12 9(43%)

Both scored
(Yes/No)

No /Yes

(65%)15 8(35%)

GOALS BY TIME PERIOD

Toluca

Monterrey

Shots

Toluca

Total shots

12.52 avg / game

Blocked

17 total

Avg. 1.70

Monterrey

Total shots

15.74 avg / game

Blocked

32 total

Avg. 3.56

Toluca Pass Monterrey

Total passes

8348

Avg. 398 / game

Accurate

85%

Ball possession

54%

Total passes

10882

Avg. 495 / game

Accurate

85%

Ball possession

57%

TOTAL ATTACKS

DANGEROUS ATTACKS

OTHERS

Toluca

Played games

Monterrey

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

0.38

Clean sheets

0.30

3.81

Corners

123

5.35

13.52

284

Throw-ins

402

17.48

0.95

Offsides

1.91

1.90

GK saves

2.70

Toluca

DISCIPLINARY

Monterrey

Avg / game Total Total Avg / game

1.43

1.43

0.10

0.13

8.76

184

Fouls

239

10.39

12.33

259

Tackles

285

12.39

NEXT MATCHES

NEXT MATCHES

How We Build the Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction

Betiball.com's prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey on 11 May 2025 is generated by a statistical model that processes over 30 data points per match — including each team's last ten results, expected goals (xG), shots on target, defensive line metrics, set-piece vulnerability, and confirmed squad availability. For this Primera Division de Mexico fixture, our model also factors in home and away performance splits and any confirmed injuries or suspensions reported within 48 hours of kick-off. Every tip includes a probability percentage — not just a pick, but the data behind it.

Toluca vs Monterrey Form Analysis

Heading into this match, both sides carry distinct statistical profiles our model weighs carefully. We assess Toluca's recent home record, scoring rate, and clean sheet frequency against Monterrey's away form — particularly goals conceded on the road and their tendency to score or keep clean sheets in away fixtures. Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and the Asian Handicap line are all evaluated through this lens before a final recommendation is issued.

Primera Division de Mexico Context: Standings, Form & What's at Stake

League position and match context are decisive inputs. A team fighting relegation defends differently from one chasing European qualification — and our model accounts for that pressure. Check the live Primera Division de Mexico standings and the Primera Division de Mexico form table to understand exactly where Toluca and Monterrey sit and what this result means for both clubs.

Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

Betiball.com publishes a weekly prediction accuracy review so you can verify our historical hit rate across 1x2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets. We do not hide results that went against our tip — full transparency on model performance is a core part of how Betiball.com operates. Our Primera Division de Mexico predictions are among the highest-rated by our users precisely because the data is always shown alongside the recommendation.

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